Archive for November, 2020
When does the Bitcoin bubble burst?
Professor Nouriel Roubini is known by his nickname Dr. Doom. The economist and professor at New York University is a renowned expert and has already advised the U.S. Treasury Department. Now Roubini said that he considers Bitcoin to be the most manipulated asset ever. So let’s take a look at what founders Dr. Doom names.
The Bitcoin Bullrun of the last few days was undoubtedly very fast. As we already reported, BTC managed to increase its market value by 80% within a short period of time.
The consequence of such rapid growth, which is not organic, is often a price correction. As a result, we also saw a correction in the Bitcoin price, which pushed BTC from around $19,500 towards the $16,000 mark.
After this happened, Roubini commented on the Bitcoin correction and said that individual investors in particular suffered from this phenomenon.
13% correction for Bitcoin. It is the most manipulated asset ever. The higher it rises, the more it falls. FOMO private investors are losing through whales just like in 2018.
Timothy Peterson, who is best known as a crypto analyst, commented on the statements of economist Roubini. Peterson said he often disagreed with Roubini, but on this point he shared Dr. Doom’s opinion.
13% down. Most manipulated asset ever. As I said they higher it goes the harder it will fall. FOMO-salivating retail suckers hoodwinked by manipulative whales will get shafted as in 2018!
To achieve this, we must intensify one aspect in particular. From my personal perspective, I agree with the statement that private investors in particular will suffer from such a correction. The rationale:
Unpleasantly little informed investors storm into the market only when Bitcoin is reported in the headlines. Instead of acting smart and achieving the best possible average price with the help of a savings plan, inexperienced investors invest with a high one-off sum after an 80% rally, which also took place in a very short time.
The consequence: Instead of maintaining a long-term investment horizon, as should be the case for all risky asset classes, panic spreads. A short-term correction of 10 percent or more looks painful when looking at the absolute figures of the portfolio. In the worst case, the uninformed investors will immediately sell again.
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Is Bitcoin like going to the casino?
Roubini also said that Bitcoin is not a real investment for institutional investors. Rather Bitcoin Whales are, which use the situation of the ignorant private investors.
Bitcoin plays no role in institutional portfolios. It is not a currency: not a unit of account, not a means of payment and not a store of value. Having BTC in your portfolio is like going to the casino.
On this point we have to disagree, because Bitcoin is obviously an important part of the portfolio for many institutional investors.
Argumentatively, we prove this, for example, by the high demand for the Grayscale products or by statements by Wall Street veterans such as hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones or Druckenmiller.
The fact that listed companies are shifting parts of their liquidity into the asset Bitcoin is probably another point in favor of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin hat seit seinem Höchststand von $19.500 vor wenigen Tagen einen starken Rückgang erlebt
Zum Zeitpunkt der Abfassung dieses Artikels wird die Münze derzeit mit 17.000 $ gehandelt.
Eine von Coinalyze zusammengestellte Analyse ergab, dass im Laufe der letzten Tage offenes Interesse im Wert von 1 Milliarde Dollar von führenden Bitcoin-Terminbörsen vernichtet wurde
Dies wurde begleitet von
Wie sich der starke Rückgang der Bitcoin auf den Terminmarkt für BTC auswirkte
Bitcoin hat seit seinem Höchststand von 19.500 US-Dollar vor wenigen Tagen einen starken Rückgang erlebt. Die führende Krypto-Währung wird derzeit für 17.000 $ gehandelt, weit unter den Höchstständen.
Der Rückgang erfolgte innerhalb kurzer Zeit, wobei die Liquidationen Bitcoin in einer Welle dramatisch nach unten drückten. Das Problem bestand darin, dass viele Marktteilnehmer überverschuldet waren, was bedeutete, dass eine kleine Korrektur Liquidationen auslöste und Verluste stoppte, was zu einer raschen Kaskade nach unten führte.
Eine von Coinalyze zusammengestellte Analyse ergab, dass im Laufe der letzten Tage offenes Interesse im Wert von 1 Milliarde Dollar von führenden Bitcoin-Terminbörsen vernichtet wurde.
Dies war auch durch einen Anstieg des Handelsvolumens um 66 Milliarden Dollar an den Terminbörsen und um 7 Milliarden Dollar an den Spot-Börsen gekennzeichnet.
Diese beiden Datenpunkte zusammen deuten darauf hin, dass die jüngste Korrektur eine notwendige Korrektur auf dem Bitcoin-Markt darstellte, um sicherzustellen, dass die Derivate-Akteure nicht zu weit übermäßig fremdfinanziert wurden.
$BTC gestern:
- – $1 Milliarde an Open Interest vernichtet
- – Rekordhandelsvolumen: $66 Milliarden bei Futures und $7 Milliarden bei Spot
- – $900 Millionen Longs liquidiert
- – 1,5 Milliarden USD-Longpositionen auf dem gesamten Terminmarkt liquidiert (alle Münzen, alle Börsen)
– Coinalyze (@coinalyzetool) 27. November 2020
Nach der starken Korrektur haben sich die Finanzierungsraten der Top-Futures-Märkte für Bitcoin zurückgesetzt. Der Refinanzierungssatz ist der Satz, zu dem Long-Positionen regelmäßig Short-Positionen bezahlen, um sicherzustellen, dass der Preis der Zukunft mit dem Kassamarkt im Einklang bleibt.
Laut ByBt, einem Tracker für Krypto-Derivate, haben sich die Refinanzierungsraten der meisten führenden Börsen auf die Grundlinie von 0,01 % pro acht Stunden zurückgesetzt. Darüber hinaus haben sich insbesondere bei OKEx die Finanzierungsraten vieler Paare in eine negative Region entwickelt, was auf eine zunehmende Zahl von Short-Nehmern schließen lässt.
Bitcoin könnte sich wieder höher entwickeln, wenn es weiterhin niedrige und sogar negative Zinssätze gibt und wenn eine Konsolidierung stattfindet.
Par für den Kurs
Viele sagen, diese Korrektur sei insofern selbstverständlich, als sie zu erwarten sei.
Bob Loukas, ein langjähriger Bitcoin-Investor und Makroanalyst, wies kürzlich darauf hin, dass der vorangegangene Bullenlauf von ähnlichen Drawdowns unterbrochen wurde wie der jetzt stattfindende:
„Die meisten haben ein kurzes Gedächtnis. Erinnern Sie sich daran, dass im Januar 2017, nur knapp vor den #Bitcoin ATH’s, der Boom um 34% zurückging. Die 2 Monate später eine scharfe Rallye, neue ATH’s und Doppelboom 34% Rückgang. Niemals eine Einbahnstraße“.
Unzählige andere in diesem Raum haben dies bestätigt und argumentieren, dass es eigentlich gesund ist, wenn sich die Hausse der Märkte zurückzieht.
En gruvedrift med kryptovaluta har fått brann til å bryte ut i en leilighet i St. Petersburg i Russland, som skadet en 35 år gammel eier av riggen. Pressetjenestene til Nøddepartementet fortalte lokale medier at årsaken til brannen var fordi eieren ikke installerte et kjølesystem for kryptoutstyret.
Gruveoperatøren som drev riggen fra leiligheten med syv soverom, ble innlagt på sykehus med brannskader på hender, rygg og nakke
Ifølge rapporten slukket fire brannbiler, 16 brannmenn og 40 minutters arbeid brannen forårsaket av gruveutstyret.
Dette ville ikke være den første slike hendelsen i Russland der kryptodriftbruk har forårsaket en brann. For snart et år siden tok en gruvegård i en privat bilgarasje i Vologda fyr og brente ned alt gruveutstyret. Tidligere i 2019 eksploderte en Bitcoin gruvedrift i flammer, som satte åtte andre leiligheter i nærheten i Artem, nær Vladivostok, Russland.
På det tidspunktet mistenkte myndighetene at gruvearbeidere hadde utnyttet strømforsyninger til boligblokker for å skaffe gratis strøm, som overoppheter elektriske kretser som forårsaker store branner
En slik slags ulovlig gruvedrift i Russland går helt tilbake til 2018. På den tiden kom det rapporter om hvordan russiske sikkerhetsoffiserer arresterte flere forskere som angivelig prøvde å bruke en av Russlands mektigste superdatamaskiner til å utvinne Bitcoin, som befant seg i Federal Nuclear. Center, i Sarov, i det vestlige Russland.
Bitcoin market capitalization is overtaking the money bases of many countries. The Canadian dollar is arguably next.
When Bitcoin ( BTC ) broke the $ 14,000 mark, its market capitalization surged above the monetary base of the Russian ruble .
This includes both physical currency and bank reserves, which are usually held by a country’s central banks
The above chart may seem complicated at first, but it only compares gold, silver, bitcoin and the rest of the global money bases. We can see that the US is 4.9 trillion. Holding US dollars in physical notes, coins and bank deposits at the US Federal Reserve. If we divide that number by the current 18.5 million BTC, we get to the above $ 263,000.
For Bitcoin’s market capitalization to match the US monetary base, the price would have to be above $ 263,000. At first glance, that seems far-fetched. But BTC has already overshadowed several currencies, such as the Brazilian real, the Swedish krona and the South Korean won.
For a cryptocurrency that’s only 11 years old, that’s no mean feat. According to Fernando Ulrich, the economist behind Crypto Voices, the 30 largest countries cover 95 percent of GDP with their base funds. In addition to the euro being the currency of many countries, some of the 113 leading countries have pegged their currencies to the US dollar.
The researchers at Crypto Voices therefore came to the conclusion:
„So far, the money monopoly ‚works‘ for the central banks and their governments. It is practically free: Fiat has proven to be almost ‚independent‘ of the gold market value.“
The researchers explained:
„As for #Bitcoin, if it gets big enough to appear on this chart and / or be held by central banks, then and only then will we get an idea of what Bitcoin ‚costs‘ central banks“.
Some people might interpret the analysis as pessimistic, but basically it’s just the opposite.
The researchers at Crypto Voices conclude that central banks and governments have previously been able to print money regardless of their gold holdings. So you don’t have to look for a new „gold standard“ or something similar anytime soon.
According to the researchers, inflation is gradually depreciating fiat currencies. This caused Bitcoin to overtake a number of currencies as they were overprinted. In fact, 2020 saw the largest global monetary expansion ever.